With the popularity of ChatGPT, I figured I’d give it a test and see what it thought about future stocks. With how volatile and unpredictable the stock market can be, I figured I’d first show this with a listing of the top 10 stocks over the years (by market valuation).
Over the lifetime of the stock market, the top 10 companies by market valuation have continuously changed. For example, back in 2000, here were the 10 most valuable companies (all date shown is from American Business History Center):
- Microsoft
- Cisco Systems
- General Electric
- Intel
- ExxonMobil
- AT&T
- Oracle
- Lucent
- Walmart
- IBM
By 2010, only 4 of those countries remained, marked by the asterisk:
- ExxonMobil*
- Microsoft*
- Apple
- Walmart*
- Berkshire Hathaway
- General Electric*
- Procter & Gamble
- Bank of America
- Alphabet
- JPMorgan Chase
And by 2020, even more change! (* means repeat from 2010, ** means repeated 2000 and 2010):
- Microsoft**
- Apple*
- Amazon
- Alphabet*
- Meta/Facebook
- Berkshire Hathaway*
- Johnson & Johnson
- Walmart**
- Visa
- JPMorgan Chase*
And even within 3 short years, there has been even more change up to February of 2023 (* notes additions from 2020, all data here from Finviz):
- Apple
- Microsoft
- Alphabet
- Amazon
- Berkshire Hathaway
- Tesla*
- Nvidia*
- ExxonMobil
- Visa
- UnitedHealth*
As you can see, the 2010s were all about technology stocks, with Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet rising up to join Microsoft, the only top 10 tech stock to make it through the dot com crash in the early 2000’s. With Microsoft and Walmart being the only two brands to make it through all these years within the top 10 market valuations, does this mean that only a few of the stocks today will be amongst the list in 2030? While there is no way to know for sure, I figured asking ChatGPT for its 2030 top 10 prediction would be a good option:
- Apple
- Microsoft
- Alphabet
- Amazon
- Meta/Facebook
- Tesla
- Tencent
- Alibaba
- Visa
- JPMorgan Chase
ChatGPT did have a couple interesting choices with Tencent and Alibaba, two Chinese companies. Both have been struck hard over the past couple years by Chinese government regulation and COVID restrictions, but it will be interesting to see if these two companies can recover, and how they plan to do so. If ChatGPT is correct, either stock would be an interesting risky long term stock idea. However, make sure to do your research and make sure to understand all the risks associated with these stocks, considering government involvement, foreign affairs (think spy balloon anyone?) etc.
And while the top 4 all remained the same, Tesla and Meta were interesting to include alongside the big tech stocks. Both have had a lot of doubters recently, with Meta being especially hit hard, losing over half its value the past year and a half. But maybe Meta can make Zuckerburg’s metaverse dreams come true? And Tesla hasn’t fared much better, losing roughly half its value over that time period as well.